A supporter of National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden holds a poster outside Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow Friday, June 28, 2013. Russian and foreign journalists continued to monitor the Sheremetyevo international airport, where Snowden is believed to remain at the transit zone. The poster reads : Edward! Russia is your second Motherland! (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)
WASHINGTON (AP) ? The father of NSA leaker Edward Snowden acknowledged Friday that his son broke the law but doesn't think he committed treason.
"If folks want to classify him as a traitor, in fact, he has betrayed his government. But I don't believe that he's betrayed the people of the United States," Lonnie Snowden told NBC's "Today" show.
Snowden said his attorney has informed Attorney General Eric Holder that he believes his son would voluntarily return to the United States if the Justice Department promises not to hold him before trial and not subject him to a gag order, NBC reported.
The elder Snowden hasn't spoken to his son since April, but he said he believes he's being manipulated by people at WikiLeaks. The anti-secrecy group has been trying to help Edward Snowden gain asylum.
"I don't want to put him in peril, but I am concerned about those who surround him," Lonnie Snowden told NBC. "I think WikiLeaks, if you've looked at past history, you know, their focus isn't necessarily the Constitution of the United States. It's simply to release as much information as possible."
Lonnie Snowden declined to comment when reached Friday by The Associated Press.
Edward Snowden, who fled to Russia, is charged with violating U.S. espionage laws for leaking information about National Security Agency surveillance programs.
ISLAMABAD (AP) ? The United Nations says Pakistan has extended refugee status for over a million Afghans living in the country. It was set to expire June 30.
The U.N.'s refugee agency said Friday Pakistan agreed to extend their status while it comes up with a new policy.
Pakistan has been hosting Afghan refugees dating back to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan three decades ago. There are 1.6 million in Pakistan. Many Pakistanis have become frustrated with the length of time the Afghans have stayed and want them to leave.
Pakistan has said it will not forcibly evict Afghans. However, revoking their refugee status would encourage people to return to Afghanistan.
Refugee status allows Afghans to get a government ID card that they use for everyday activities like banking or registering for school.
WASHINGTON (AP) ? A measure of U.S. consumer confidence remained near a six-year high in June as higher home prices boosted household wealth. The survey shows Americans are feeling better about the economy, despite wild gyrations in the stock market.
The University of Michigan said Friday that its final reading of consumer sentiment in June was 84.1. That's an improvement from a preliminary reading of 82.7 issued on June 14. And it is just slightly below May's final reading of 84.5, which was the highest since July 2007.
Rising household wealth was the main reason consumers stayed optimistic. Households with income above $75,000, those more likely to own homes and stocks, reported the biggest gain.
Consumers' confidence is closely watched because their spending accounts for 70 percent of economic growth.
Stocks pared steep early morning losses after the report was released. The Dow Jones industrial average, which was down as much as 140 points at one point, rebounded to 70 points lower at midday.
The University of Michigan polls roughly 500 people throughout the month and issues two readings.
The slight improvement from the preliminary survey suggests consumers were unfazed by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's June 19 comments about the Fed's bond purchases. Bernanke said the Fed could start to slow its bond buying by the end of the year and end it next year, if the economy continues to strengthen. The bond purchases have kept long-term interest rates low.
Stocks fell sharply in the days after Bernanke's comments and interest rates jumped. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage surged this week to a two-year high of 4.46 percent. That's up from 3.93 percent last week and a full point higher than a month ago.
"Consumers remain optimistic despite recent market volatility and a back-up in mortgage rates," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas.
Americans seem to agree with the Fed's view that the economy is slowly improving. A measure of their expectations for future growth rose to an eight-month high.
Employers have been adding jobs at stable pace, while the unemployment rate has slowly fallen to a still-high 7.6 percent. Higher home sales and prices have driven a steady housing recovery. And on Tuesday the Conference Board said the improved job market helped lift its survey of consumer confidence to the highest level in 5? years, a point echoed by Friday's Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
"Consumers now believe the recovery has achieved an upward momentum that will not be easily reversed," Richard Curtin, director of the Michigan survey, said.
More Americans said they planned to buy a home, despite rising mortgage rates, according to the Michigan survey. The number of consumers who said it was a bad time to buy a home fell to the fewest in 10 years.
The survey also found that rising mortgage rates and home prices may be spurring more Americans to buy homes, rather than discouraging them. The proportion of Americans who said it is a good time to buy because rates and prices will be higher in the future reached post-recession highs this month.
BOSTON (AP) ? Boston Marathon suspect Dzhokhar Tsarnaev downloaded bomb-making instructions from an al-Qaida magazine, gathered online material on Islamic jihad and martyrdom, and later scrawled anti-American messages inside the boat where he lay wounded, a federal indictment charged Thursday.
The 30-count indictment contains the bombing charges, punishable by the death penalty, that were brought in April against the 19-year-old Tsarnaev, including use of a weapon of mass destruction to kill.
It also contains many new charges covering the slaying of an MIT police officer and the carjacking of a motorist during the getaway attempt that left Tsarnaev's older brother, Tamerlan, dead.
"Tamerlan Tsarnaev's justice will be in the next world, but for his brother, accountability will begin right here in the district of Massachusetts," Suffolk District Attorney Daniel Conley, whose jurisdiction includes Boston, said at a news conference with federal prosecutors.
The indictment provides one of the most detailed public explanations to date of the brothers' alleged motive ? Islamic extremism ? and the role the Internet may have played in influencing them.
Three people were killed and more than 260 wounded by the two pressure-cooker bombs that went off near the finish line of the marathon on April 15.
Dzhokhar Tsarnaev was captured four days later, hiding in a boat parked in a backyard in Watertown, Mass.
According to the indictment, he scrawled messages on the inside of the vessel that said, among other things, "The U.S. Government is killing our innocent civilians," ''I can't stand to see such evil go unpunished," and "We Muslims are one body, you hurt one you hurt us all."
The Tsarnaev brothers had roots in the turbulent Russian regions of Dagestan and Chechnya, which have become recruiting grounds for Muslim extremists. They had been living in the U.S. about a decade.
But the indictment made no mention of any larger conspiracy beyond the brothers, and no reference to any direct overseas contacts with extremists. Instead, the indictment suggests the Internet played an important role in the suspects' radicalization.
Before the attack, according to the indictment, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev downloaded onto his computer the summer 2010 issue of Inspire, an online English-language magazine published by al-Qaida. The issue detailed how to make bombs from pressure cookers, explosive powder extracted from fireworks, and lethal shrapnel.
He also downloaded extremist Muslim literature, including "Defense of the Muslim Lands, the First Obligation After Imam," which advocates "violence designed to terrorize the perceived enemies of Islam," the indictment said.
Another tract downloaded included a foreword by Anwar al-Awlaki, an American propagandist for al-Qaida who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2011.
U.S. Attorney Carmen Ortiz of Massachusetts said Attorney General Eric Holder will decide whether to pursue the death penalty against Tsarnaev, who will be arraigned on July 10.
The indictment assembled and confirmed details of the case that have been widely reported over the past two months, and added new pieces of information.
For example, it corroborated reports that Tamerlan Tsarnaev bought 48 mortar shells from a Seabrook, N.H., fireworks store. It also disclosed that he used the Internet to order electronic components that could be used in making bombs.
The papers detail how the brothers then allegedly placed knapsacks containing shrapnel-packed bombs near the finish line of the 26.2-mile race.
The court papers also corroborated reports by authorities that Dzhokhar Tsarnaev contributed to his brother's death by accidentally running him over with a stolen vehicle during a shootout and police chase.
The charges cover the slaying of Massachusetts Institute of Technology police officer Sean Collier, who authorities said was shot in the head at close range in his cruiser by the Tsarnaevs, who tried to take his gun.
In addition, prosecutors said that during the carjacking, the Tsarnaevs forced the motorist to turn over his ATM card and his password, and Dzhokhar withdrew $800 from the man's account.
At the same time the federal indictment was announced, Massachusetts authorities brought a 15-count state indictment against Dzhokhar over the MIT officer's slaying and the police shootout.
Rutgers-Camden professor examines social capabilities of performing multiple-action sequencesPublic release date: 26-Jun-2013 [ | E-mail | Share ]
Contact: Tom McLaughlin trm100@camden.rutgers.edu 856-225-6545 Rutgers University
The day of the big barbecue arrives and it's time to fire up the grill. But rather than toss the hamburgers and hotdogs haphazardly onto the grate, you wait for the heat to reach an optimal temperature, and then neatly lay them out in their apportioned areas according to size and cooking times. Meanwhile, your friend is preparing the beverages. Cups are grabbed face down from the stack, turned over, and using the other hand filled with ice.
While these tasks like countless, everyday actions may seem trivial at first glance, they are actually fairly complex, according to Robrecht van der Wel, an assistant professor of psychology at RutgersCamden. "For instance, the observation that you grab a glass differently when you are filling a beverage than when you are stacking glasses suggests that you are thinking about the goal that you want to achieve," he says. "How do you manipulate the glass? How do you coordinate your actions so that the liquid goes into the cup? These kinds of actions are not just our only way to accomplish our intentions, but they reveal our intentions and mental states as well."
van der Wel and his research partners, Marlene Meyer and Sabine Hunnius, turned their attention to how action planning generalizes to collaborative actions performed with others in a study, titled "Higher-order Planning for Individual and Joint Object Manipulations," published recently in Experimental Brain Research.
According to van der Wel, the researchers were especially interested in determining whether people's actions exhibit certain social capabilities when performing multiple-action sequences in concert with a partner. "It is a pretty astonishing ability that we, as people, are able to plan and coordinate our actions with others," says van der Wel. "If people plan ahead for themselves, what happens if they are now in a task where their action might influence another person's comfort? Do they actually take that into account or not, even though, for their personal action, it makes no difference?"
In the research study, participants first completed a series of individual tasks requiring them to pick up a cylindrical object with one hand, pass it to their other hand, and then place it on a shelf. In the collaborative tasks, individuals picked up the object and handed it to their partner, who placed it on the shelf. The researchers varied the height of the shelf, to test whether people altered their grasps to avoid uncomfortable end postures. The object could only be grasped at one of two positions, implying that the first grasp would determine the postures and comfort of the remaining actions.
According to the researchers, the results from both the individual and joint performances show that participants altered their grasp location relative to the height of the shelf. The participants in both scenarios were thus more likely to use a low-grasp location when the shelf was low, and vice versa. Doing so implied that the participants ended the sequences in comfortable postures. The researchers conclude that, in both individual and collaborative scenarios, participants engaged in extended planning to finish the object-transport sequences in a relatively comfortable posture. Given that participants did plan ahead for the sake of their action partner, it indicates an implicit social awareness that supports collaboration across individuals.
van der Wel notes that, while such basic actions may seem insignificant, it is important to understand how people perform basic tasks such as manipulating objects when considering those populations that aren't able to complete them so efficiently. "How to pick up an object seems like a really trivial problem when you look at healthy adults, but as soon as you look at children, or people suffering from a stroke, it takes some time to develop that skill properly," says van der Wel. "When someone has a stroke, it is not that they have damage to the musculature involved in doing the task; rather, damage to action planning areas in the brain results in an inability to perform simple actions. A better understanding of the mechanisms involved in action planning may guide rehabilitation strategies in such cases."
According to van der Wel, the researchers are currently working on modifying the task to determine the age at which children begin planning their actions with respect to other peoples' comfort. In particular, they want to understand how the development of social action planning links with the development of other cognitive and social abilities.
###
Marlene Meyer is a Ph.D. candidate at the Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour at Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands. Sabine Hunnius, Ph.D., is the director of the Baby Research Center at Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
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Rutgers-Camden professor examines social capabilities of performing multiple-action sequencesPublic release date: 26-Jun-2013 [ | E-mail | Share ]
Contact: Tom McLaughlin trm100@camden.rutgers.edu 856-225-6545 Rutgers University
The day of the big barbecue arrives and it's time to fire up the grill. But rather than toss the hamburgers and hotdogs haphazardly onto the grate, you wait for the heat to reach an optimal temperature, and then neatly lay them out in their apportioned areas according to size and cooking times. Meanwhile, your friend is preparing the beverages. Cups are grabbed face down from the stack, turned over, and using the other hand filled with ice.
While these tasks like countless, everyday actions may seem trivial at first glance, they are actually fairly complex, according to Robrecht van der Wel, an assistant professor of psychology at RutgersCamden. "For instance, the observation that you grab a glass differently when you are filling a beverage than when you are stacking glasses suggests that you are thinking about the goal that you want to achieve," he says. "How do you manipulate the glass? How do you coordinate your actions so that the liquid goes into the cup? These kinds of actions are not just our only way to accomplish our intentions, but they reveal our intentions and mental states as well."
van der Wel and his research partners, Marlene Meyer and Sabine Hunnius, turned their attention to how action planning generalizes to collaborative actions performed with others in a study, titled "Higher-order Planning for Individual and Joint Object Manipulations," published recently in Experimental Brain Research.
According to van der Wel, the researchers were especially interested in determining whether people's actions exhibit certain social capabilities when performing multiple-action sequences in concert with a partner. "It is a pretty astonishing ability that we, as people, are able to plan and coordinate our actions with others," says van der Wel. "If people plan ahead for themselves, what happens if they are now in a task where their action might influence another person's comfort? Do they actually take that into account or not, even though, for their personal action, it makes no difference?"
In the research study, participants first completed a series of individual tasks requiring them to pick up a cylindrical object with one hand, pass it to their other hand, and then place it on a shelf. In the collaborative tasks, individuals picked up the object and handed it to their partner, who placed it on the shelf. The researchers varied the height of the shelf, to test whether people altered their grasps to avoid uncomfortable end postures. The object could only be grasped at one of two positions, implying that the first grasp would determine the postures and comfort of the remaining actions.
According to the researchers, the results from both the individual and joint performances show that participants altered their grasp location relative to the height of the shelf. The participants in both scenarios were thus more likely to use a low-grasp location when the shelf was low, and vice versa. Doing so implied that the participants ended the sequences in comfortable postures. The researchers conclude that, in both individual and collaborative scenarios, participants engaged in extended planning to finish the object-transport sequences in a relatively comfortable posture. Given that participants did plan ahead for the sake of their action partner, it indicates an implicit social awareness that supports collaboration across individuals.
van der Wel notes that, while such basic actions may seem insignificant, it is important to understand how people perform basic tasks such as manipulating objects when considering those populations that aren't able to complete them so efficiently. "How to pick up an object seems like a really trivial problem when you look at healthy adults, but as soon as you look at children, or people suffering from a stroke, it takes some time to develop that skill properly," says van der Wel. "When someone has a stroke, it is not that they have damage to the musculature involved in doing the task; rather, damage to action planning areas in the brain results in an inability to perform simple actions. A better understanding of the mechanisms involved in action planning may guide rehabilitation strategies in such cases."
According to van der Wel, the researchers are currently working on modifying the task to determine the age at which children begin planning their actions with respect to other peoples' comfort. In particular, they want to understand how the development of social action planning links with the development of other cognitive and social abilities.
###
Marlene Meyer is a Ph.D. candidate at the Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour at Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands. Sabine Hunnius, Ph.D., is the director of the Baby Research Center at Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
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AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.
Governor-General Quentin Bryce, right, commissions Kevin Rudd with in half an hour of Parliament resuming for what is likely to be its last day before elections, in Canberra, Australia, Thursday, June 27, 2013. Rudd is sworn in as Australian prime minister three years and three days after he was ousted from the same job in an internal government showdown. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)
Governor-General Quentin Bryce, right, commissions Kevin Rudd with in half an hour of Parliament resuming for what is likely to be its last day before elections, in Canberra, Australia, Thursday, June 27, 2013. Rudd is sworn in as Australian prime minister three years and three days after he was ousted from the same job in an internal government showdown. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)
Kevin Rudd signs his commission at Government House within half an hour of Parliament resuming for what is likely to be its last day before elections, in Canberra, Australia, Thursday, June 27, 2013. Rudd is sworn in as Australian prime minister three years and three days after he was ousted from the same job in an internal government showdown. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)
Kevin Rudd speaks to the media following a leadership ballot for the Labor Party at parliament in Canberra, Australia, Wednesday, June 26, 2013. Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard was ousted as Labor Party leader by her predecessor, Rudd, in a vote of party lawmakers hoping to avoid a huge defeat in upcoming elections. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)
Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard speaks to the media following a leadership ballot for the Labor Party at parliament in Canberra, Australia, Wednesday, June 26, 2013. Gillard was ousted as Labor Party leader by her predecessor, Kevin Rudd, in a vote of party lawmakers hoping to avoid a huge defeat in upcoming elections. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)
Kevin Rudd speaks to the media following a leadership ballot for the Labor Party at parliament in Canberra, Australia, Wednesday, June 26, 2013. Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard was ousted as Labor Party leader by her predecessor, Rudd, in a vote of party lawmakers hoping to avoid a huge defeat in upcoming elections. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)
CANBERRA, Australia (AP) ? Kevin Rudd was sworn in as Australian prime minister on Thursday three years and three days after he was ousted from the same job in an internal government showdown.
His office could not immediately confirm whether Rudd would replace his predecessor Julia Gillard in a visit to Indonesia that had been scheduled for next week. Gillard was dumped Wednesday by colleagues spooked by the party's dismal opinion polling.
Governor-General Quentin Bryce commissioned Rudd within half an hour of Parliament resuming for what is likely to be its last day before elections.
"I will do my absolute best," Rudd told Bryce, whom he appointed governor-general when he was last prime minister.
Anthony Albanese was sworn in as deputy prime minister and Chris Bowen was sworn in as treasurer during the same ceremony. Rudd has yet say when he will announce his complete Cabinet after seven ministers resigned following Gillard's ouster.
Rudd faces a potential no-confidence vote in Parliament, which he will likely survive although a loss could trigger an election as early as Aug. 3.
Gillard tendered her resignation as prime minister Wednesday night after losing a ballot of ruling lawmakers to Rudd 57 votes to 45.
Rudd has given no indication of whether he would stick with an election date of Sept. 14 set under Gillard.
Bryce revealed she took late-night legal advice on whether she should swear in Rudd.
A minority government such as Gillard led has not been seen in Australian federal politics since World War II, and the ruling Labor Party's leadership change has raised unique constitutional questions.
While Rudd has the support of his party, he does not necessarily have the support of a majority of lawmakers in the 150-seat House of Representatives, which a prime minister must have.
Acting Solicitor-General Robert Orr wrote to Bryce that Rudd should be commissioned as prime minister.
Bryce's secretary Stephen Brady wrote that she wanted an assurance from Rudd "that he will announce his appointment at the first possible opportunity to the House of Representatives on order to give the House the opportunity for whatever, if any, action it chooses to take."
Rudd plans to make a statement on the subject to Parliament later Thursday.
Wednesday's leadership ballot was forced by government lawmakers hoping to avoid a huge defeat in upcoming elections.
Rudd had warned that Labor was facing its worst election defeat under Gillard's leadership in the 111-year history of the Australian federation.
Gillard lacked Rudd's charisma, and although many Labor lawmakers preferred her style, her deepening unpopularity among voters compelled a majority to seek a change ahead of looming elections.
Labor has depended on independents and a minor party for its fragile ruling coalition, but Rudd appeared capable of retaining it after two independent lawmakers who did not back Gillard's government said they would support his.
"In 2007, the Australian people elected me to be their prime minister and that is a task I resume today with humility, with honor and with an important sense of energy and purpose," he said Wednesday after he was elected Labor leader.
Facing tougher price competition from a state-run marketplace, Aetna Inc. said it would exit California's individual health insurance market by year-end and leave nearly 50,000 customers searching for new coverage.
Aetna, the nation's third-largest health insurer, will maintain a major presence in California with a focus on large and small employers. But the move reflects how the federal healthcare law and its rollout in different states is rapidly reshaping the health insurance landscape for millions of consumers.
California Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones expressed concern about reduced competition from Aetna's departure, but other industry experts predicted that the company wouldn't be missed much given its small share of the individual market. They viewed Aetna's retreat as a sign the company didn't have enough market power in California to aggressively compete on price against a lineup of new and established rivals in the state's health exchange.
Aetna and two other big insurers, UnitedHealth Group Inc. and Cigna Corp., chose not to participate in Covered California, the state-run market opening Jan. 1 as part of the Affordable Care Act. Instead, the state selected 13 other health plans last month and announced proposed rates that were lower than expected.
California, more so than other states, is forcing insurers to compete for consumers more directly on price by requiring them next year to offer uniform deductibles and benefits across four main product categories. In turn, insurers have resorted to squeezing hospitals and physician groups for better rates and forming smaller networks of medical providers to hold down premiums.
"National companies that don't have a strong local presence may not be able to compete on price very well if they don't have the best networks or best discounts," said Gary Claxton, a vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonpartisan research group. "Aetna has places where it is stronger."
Still, Jones, the state's elected insurance commissioner, said Aetna's exit "is not good news for California consumers. A competitive market with more choices for consumers is important as we implement the Affordable Care Act and health insurance coverage is a requirement."
The insurance department said Aetna cannot reenter California's individual market for five years after it leaves.
Aetna was a distant fourth in the state's individual health market with a 5.2% market share in 2011, according to Citigroup data. Anthem Blue Cross, Kaiser Permanente and Blue Shield of California dominate that business with a collective 87% market share in the state.
The company said its share of individual customers had dwindled to 4%, and "we have identified California as a state where we are not able to meet the needs of our individual members."
Outside California, Aetna said it plans to participate in exchanges in as many as 15 states.
"Our decisions about which exchanges to participate on are based on a careful review of key attributes, such as our current market presence, our ability to offer strong networks and competitively priced products and the regulatory environment in each state," said Aetna spokesman Anjie Coplin.
In addition to employers, Aetna said it would continue to sell other products in California related to Medicare, dental and life insurance.
"We are fully committed to serving the needs of our 1.5 million members in the state," Coplin said.
The company said it expects to have about 49,000 individual policyholders in the state by December. Regardless of its decision, it estimated that up to 30% of those customers would seek other insurance through Covered California next year.
Aetna said it will stop taking applications for individual policies after July 15. Under the healthcare law, it should be easier for Aetna customers to find new coverage next year because they cannot be turned down by other insurers for preexisting medical conditions.
Barry Sikov, a health plan advisor and broker at Belair Insurance Services in Brentwood, said he wasn't surprised by Aetna's move in light of its diminishing interest in selling to individuals in recent years. In contrast, he said, Cigna has been rolling out new products for customers outside the exchange.
"Aetna hasn't been a serious player for individuals," he said.
Not everybody's into chemistry but you have to be a special kind of insane to not have a fondness for the Muppets. This periodic table of Muppetry is a wonderfully organized and colorful take on the history of the form than anyone (with a soul) can appreciate, chem-geek or not.
Designed by Mike BaBoon, the chart is more than just Muppet abbreviations in squares; it actually gets some real information across. The background color of each element/Muppet/muplement/elemupp represents its skin or fur, the border color stands in for any hat or hair, and the color of the abbreviation text matches its nose. On top of that, each box indicates the muppet's year of introduction, and the primary muppeteer. It's more data than you might expect, and all in a delightful form.
If this seems like something that belongs on your wall, you can find prints of various sizes for various prices at Redbubble and Society6. And study up; there will be a quiz. [Mike BaBoon Design via Buzzfeed]
Financial markets have been gyrating in the weeks since Ben Bernanke?told Congress the Fed might scale back its effort to keep long-term rates at record lows. But Bernanke has cautioned that the Fed would slow its support only if it felt confident the job market would show sustained improvement.
By Associated Press / June 17, 2013
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, before the Senate Budget Committee in January 2012. The financial world looks to Bernanke the Week of June 17, 2013, to clarify the Fed?s timetable on economic stimulus.
Alex Brandon/AP/File
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Is the era of ultra-low interest rates nearing an end?
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That's the question ? and the fear ? Chairman?Ben?Bernanke?will face this week when he takes questions after a Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Financial markets have been gyrating in the 3? weeks since?Bernanke?told Congress the Fed might scale back its effort to keep long-term rates at record lows within "the next few meetings"? earlier than many had assumed.
Bernanke?cautioned that the Fed would slow its support only if it felt confident the job market would show sustained improvement. And earlier in the day, he said the Fed must take care not to prematurely reduce its stimulus for the still-subpar economy.
Yet investors were left puzzled and spooked by a mixed message. Fear spread that the Fed would soon slow its $85 billion-a-month in bond purchases. Those purchases have been intended to hold down long-term borrowing rates to spur spending. Many worried that a pullback in the bond purchases could boost long-term rates, trigger a stock selloff and perhaps weaken the economy.
On Wednesday, when the Fed ends a two-day policy meeting with a?Bernanke?news conference, the financial world will be looking to the chairman to settle the confusion. What,?Bernanke?will likely be asked, would show sustained improvement in the job market? And when will the Fed most likely slow the pace of its bond purchases?
Last month, the U.S. economy added a solid 175,000 jobs. But the unemployment rate was 7.6 percent. Economists tend to regard the job market as healthy when unemployment is between 5 percent and 6 percent.
Since?Bernanke's?vague public comments May 22, the Dow Jones industrial average has fluctuated sharply and shed about 3 percent of its value. But the bigger shock has been in the bond market. The rate on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has jumped from a low of 1.63 percent in early May to 2.13 percent.
Higher rates ripple through the economy by making mortgages and other loans costlier. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage, which tends to track the 10-year Treasury yield, reached 3.98 percent last week, according to Freddie Mac. That's its highest level since April 2012.
Just as cheap mortgages have helped feed a housing recovery, higher rates might slow it. Refinancings have declined since?Bernanke'scomments led to higher mortgage rates: Refinancings are 36 percent below their recent peak at the start of May, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Compounding the confusion stirred by?Bernanke's?remarks have been comments from other members of the Fed's policy committee. Minutes of the previous meeting suggest a sharp division: Some, like?Bernanke, still stress the need to fight high unemployment with low rates. Others warn that rates kept too low for too long raise the risk of high inflation and financial instability later.
The Fed's investment purchases have swollen its portfolio to $3.4 trillion ? a four-fold increase since before the 2008 financial crisis. Eventually, the Fed will need to gradually sell its portfolio. Doing so would likely lead to higher rates. Yet some think it would also defuse some risks to the financial system.
Alan Greenspan, who preceded?Bernanke?as Fed chairman for nearly two decades, said in a recent interview on CNBC, "The sooner we come to grips with this excessive level of assets on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve ? that everybody agrees is excessive ? the better."
Economists say?Bernanke?will seek to clarify the Fed's message Wednesday. Yet they're unsure what he'll say.
Some think he could spell out the Fed's likely timetable for curtailing its bond purchases. The earliest the Fed is expected to announce a pullback is at its September meeting ? and only then if unemployment has declined and the economy is growing faster than its current sluggish annual pace of around 2 percent.
Other analysts think the economy will not have recovered enough by September. They believe the earliest the Fed will reduce its stimulus is at its final meeting of the year in December. Until then, they think?Bernanke?will seek to reassure investors that the Fed will make sure the economy has strengthened before it acts.
"The Fed has worked very hard to get stock prices and home prices rising to help the economy, and I don't think they want to back away from that in any way," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "I think?Bernanke?will deliver a strong message that the Fed is not going to taper until the job market is improving in a consistent way."
Some in this camp say the economy will continue to be held back by a Social Security tax increase that kicked in in January and by federal spending cuts that began taking effect March 1.
"There is nothing in the underlying economy that would suggest the Fed needs to change policy any time soon," said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Gordon College in Massachusetts. "There is considerably slower growth on the radar screen and absolutely no inflation to worry about."
Indeed, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation tied to consumer spending rose just 0.7 percent in the 12 months that ended in April? far below the Fed's 2 percent target.
Some think?Bernanke?will want to signal to investors on Wednesday that the Fed is moving toward at least the start of a reduced pace of bond purchases in the second half of the year. Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at the Martin Smith School of Business at California State University, suggested one possible approach: The Fed could reduce its $85 billion a month in purchases to about $60 billion in September, then to about $35 billion early next year, then stop the purchases altogether by spring.
Even when the Fed stops buying bonds, it's expected to maintain its current holdings, which would continue to exert downward pressure on long-term rates.
Whatever guidance?Bernanke?offers Wednesday could help steady markets for a key reason: It will reduce uncertainty.
Margie Patel, a portfolio manager at Wells Fargo Capital Management, thinks investors will remain calm even after the Fed slows its stimulus. She noted that the economy has been improving, however gradually.
"There's no sector you can look at that's extremely dependent on the low rates for growth, even housing," she said. "If rates went up modestly, housing is still more affordable than it has been in years."
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Public release date: 26-Jun-2013
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